Esse estudo, largamente utilizado por operadores nos mercados futuros, de opções e à vista, é baseado na seguinte observação feita pelo autor:
Quando os preços sobem, os valores dos fechamentos tendem estar próximos do máximo valor alcançado. Quando os preços descem, os valores dos fechamentos tendem estar próximo do mínimo valor alcançado.
O oscilador é formado por duas linhas denominadas %K e %D.
- A linha %K, cheia, representa o porcentual de onde os valores dos fechamentos estão em relação à variação diária.
- A linha %D, pontilhada, é obtida do resultado de %K, suavizando-a. É a sua média móvel de período 3.
As linhas oscilam de O a 100 em uma escala vertical. Essa escala possue duas linhas horizontais nas cotas 80 e 20 que delimitam as áreas "overbought" e "oversold".
Sinais de Venda:
- %D está se desenvolvendo acima da linha 80 e forma uma divergência com o gráfico de barras, isto é, forma topos decrescentes enquanto as barras continuam subindo ou estão "de lado". Geralmente, os melhores sinais ocorrem quando %D está entre 85 e 90 e o sinalizador %K, corta %D , que já mudou de direção.
- %D está se desenvolvendo abaixo da linha 20 e forma uma divergência com o gráfico de barras , isto é, forma fundos crescentes enquanto as barras continuam descendo ou estão "de lado". De maneira geral, os melhores sinais ocorrem quando %D está entre 10 e 15 e o sinalizador %K, corta %D que já mudou de direção.
- Os sinais de compra e venda podem ser aceitos sem considerar divergências quando estamos trabalhando com tendências secundárias, isto é, aceitamos os sinais que estão a favor da tendência primária, aumentando nossa posição.
Bibliografia: "Lane's Stochastics", George Lane - Revista "Technical Analysis of Stocks& Commodities", Junho 1984
Fonte: Apligraf
Overview
Sto.chas.tic (sto kas'tik) adj. 2. Math. designating a process
having an infinite progression of jointly
distributed random variables.
--- Webster's New World Dictionary
The Stochastic Oscillator compares where
a security's price closed relative to its
price range over a given time period.
Interpretation
The Stochastic Oscillator is displayed
as two lines. The main line is called "%K."
The second line, called "%D," is a
moving average of %K. The %K line is
usually displayed as a solid line and
the %D line is usually displayed as
a dotted line.
There are several ways to interpret
a Stochastic Oscillator. Three popular methods include:
Buy when the Oscillator (either %K or %D)
falls below a specific level (e.g., 20) and
then rises above that level. Sell when
the Oscillator rises above a specific level
(e.g., 80) and then falls below that level.
Buy when the %K line rises above
the %D line and sell when the %K line
falls below the %D line.
Look for divergences. For example,
where prices are making a series of new highs
and the Stochastic Oscillator is failing to surpass
its previous highs.
Calculation
The Stochastic Oscillator has four variables:
%K Periods.
This is the number of time periods
used in the stochastic calculation.
%K Slowing Periods.
This value controls the internal smoothing of %K.
A value of 1 is considered a fast stochastic;
a value of 3 is considered a slow stochastic.
%D Periods.
This is the number of time periods used
when calculating a moving average of %K.
The moving average is called "%D" and is
usually displayed as a dotted line on
top of %K.
%D Method.
The method (i.e., Exponential,
Simple, Time Series, Triangular, Variable,
or Weighted) that is used to calculate %D.
The formula for %K is:
For example, to calculate a 10-day %K,
first find the security's highest-high and
lowest-low over the last 10 days.
As an example, let's assume that during
the last 10 days the highest-high was 46 and
the lowest-low was 38--a range of 8 points.
If today's closing price was 41,
%K would be calculated as:
The 37.5% in this example shows
that today's close was at the level of 37.5%
relative to the security's trading range over
the last 10 days. If today's close was 42,
the Stochastic Oscillator would be 50%.
This would mean that that the security
closed today at 50%, or the mid-point,
of its 10-day trading range.
The above example used a
%K Slowing Period of 1-day (no slowing).
If you use a value greater than one,
you average the highest-high and
the lowest-low over the number of
%K Slowing Periods before performing
the division.
A moving average of %K is then
calculated using the number of time
periods specified in the %D Periods.
This moving average is called %D.
The Stochastic Oscillator always ranges between 0% and 100%. A reading of 0% shows that the security's close was the lowest price that the security has traded during the preceding x-time periods. A reading of 100% shows that the security's close was the highest price that the security has traded during the preceding x-time periods.
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